#106: 2024 Predictions Scorecard, 2025 Predictions, How To Start & End Every Year
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Alright, let’s get to it…
2024 Predictions Scorecard
On January 14th, 2024 I predicted the below would happen:
1. Private Equity goes on a buying spree in the lower and middle markets. I expect this to be 10% higher than 2023. As interest rates fall PE can borrow more $$ and cheaper. They will rush to buy companies before SaaS multiples really begin to rebound.
2. More venture-backed software companies go out of business than in 2023. A bunch of companies were able to hang on with bridge rounds, but back to back bridge rounds are near impossible and many companies will face a sad fate as a result.
3. Series A Bar stays really high for everything that's not AI. 3X YoY growth, $2M ARR at the absolute minimum.
4. More software IPO's than in 2023 but the window doesn't fully re-open until 2025.
5. Things get really dark before, during, and after the election. I have no idea what's going to happen here but whatever it is I don't think it's going to be pretty.
Let’s score how I did…
#1. Private equity deals in lower middle market are definetly on an up-tick in 2024, and Carta has them at or above 10%.
I think we nailed it here ✅
#2. I forecasted that more venture-backed software companies go out of business than in 2023….
Based on all the data I’m seeing, that also happened ✅
#3. The third prediction was that the Series A Bar would stay really high for everything that's not AI. 3X YoY growth, $2M ARR at the absolute minimum. I believe this was indeed the case, was really tough to raise if you weren’t an AI company. For the folks that did they had incredibly impressive numbers.
#4.More software IPO's than in 2023 but the window doesn't fully re-open until 2025.
Yes - this was accurate with a few big ones including Rubrik, Service Titan. I think the window will fully re-open in 2025 so feels like this one was a ✅ too.
#5. Things get really dark before, during, and after the election.
This is not a political newsletter, but seeing that former/future President was shot and the general political division in the U.S., I’d say it definetly got very dark there so got this one right as well.
Linear fam…
We did damn good on our 2024 predictions.
Hope some of you put money on these 😂
2025 Predictions
I don’t think I’ll go 5/5 again this year, that was definetly a fluke :-).
But we will give it another go regardless.
Here are my 2025 predictions:
#1. IPO’s explode, surpassing 2023 and 2024 but not ZIRP level era in 2021 and 2022.
#2. AI start-up funding continues to be incredibly strong, significantly outpacing SaaS start-up funding (2x+) .
#3. We see A LOT MORE Venture Buy Out concepts get funded. I’m guessing 30+ of them get backed by leading funds.
#4. Interest rates drop into the high fives.
#5. Bitcoin hits $125K+ and then dips back down to <$100K.
#6. Economy stays consistent with where it is now - big changes start to happen in 2026.
How I Start & End Every Year
This isn’t a vertical SaaS post but I have found something that works and I’d love to share it with you…
At the end of every year I go to Canyon Ranch Wellness Resort in Tucson where I do the same exercise every year. If you wan’t more info on Canyon Ranch and why it’s the greatest place to recharge and build your future, feel free to ping me. But today’s post is about wrapping the year and starting your next one with a solid format…
So the overview is —
2024 Review: I answer thought provoking questions that make me think about the year.
Present Analysis: I answer big questions about who I want to be, what I believe, ideal situations across family/friends/career/spirit/etc.
2025 Goals: I leverage the above to map my goals for the year
2025 Schedule: I build a digital calendar for the year that ensures all the inputs are there to meet my goals (outputs).
2025 OKR’s: I break down those goals into a spreadsheet that I track WEEKLY on my progress
I’ve been doing this for many years now and, I get it, I’m a bit maniacal, but I promise if you do this you will achieve your goals. Whatever they are.
If you wan’t to go deeper on this here is my exact rubric:
2024 Review—
Favorite Song this year?
Favorite Photo?
Favorite Travel?
Favorite New Experience?
Favorite Recognition?
Favorite Memory?
Favorite Meal?
Favorite First Meeting?
Book and Podcast That Impacted Your Thinking?
What did you learn about yourself this year?
Who surprised you this year? Positively and negatively.
Favorite learning?
Friends you enjoyed this year? New? Old?
Favorite Conversation you had?
Who were highly influental (positively) people in your life this year?
Something I did for the first time this year?
Most Loving Service?
Biggest misunderstanding? Was it corrected?
Most surprising event?
Most intense moment?
Biggest risks I took?
Most challenging moment?
Easiest moment?
What gave you the most energy?
What drained you?
Top Wins?
How would you describe your 2024 in one sentence?
Present Review—
What do I enjoy?
What do I NOT enjoy?
What do I want?
What do I need to work on?
What is my ideal family situation?
What is my ideal friend situation?
What is my ideal career situation?
What is my ideal knowledge situation?
What is my ideal spiritual situation?
What do I want my legacy to be?
2025 Goals —
Health
Goal #1
Goal #2
Wealth
Goal #1
Goal #2
Knowledge
Goal #1
Goal #2
Family
Goal #1
Goal #2
Friends
Goal #1
Goal #2
Knowledge
Goal #1
Goal #2
Spiritual
Goal #1
Goal #2
2025 Schedule —
Build your schedule and plug it in to your digital calendar. Build it so that all of your INPUTS are there - IE if your goal is to lose 10 pounds make sure that you have all the times you’re going to work out in your calendar. INPUTS > OUTPUTS.
2025 OKR’s —
Then I track every thing on a WEEKLY BASIS. This is what it look likes for me. Ping me if you want the google sheet template and I’ll send it over.
I’m no expert but I’ve been doing this for a while and IT WORKS. It’s so awesome to look back a few years and see where my focus was and how it evolved. I highly recommend it!
Alright friends. Back to regularly scheduled programming next week.
I hope 2025 brings you tremendous blessings!
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